Is the writing on the wall for the man from Hornchurch?

As many people will have seen Old Bexley & Sidcup Conservatives are parachuting in an MP who's Essex seat is being abolished to replace Del Boy Conway.
James Brokenshire, was born in Southend (I was born in Dartford), went to school in Essex (I went to school in Bexley) and never seems to have lived in the area (I've lived 19 years in Bexley, 15 in Chislehurst, 5 in Orpington, 2 in Beckenham and 6 in Belsize Park).
But is the writing on the wall already for him? Last Thursday there was a by-election in his Horchurch constituency. The result?
Ind 661/17 (27.2; +8.1)
BNP 518 (21.3; +21.3)
Con 438 (18.0; -4.6)
Lab 416 (17.1; -5.8)
Residents 287 (11.8; -12.7)
UKIP 64 (2.6; +2.6)
English Democrats 28 (1.2; +1.2)
Residents Association of London 17 (0.7; -4.5)